Part 1: My 2011 Tech Predictions Revisited in 2015

The end of one year and beginning of the next always bring a slew of prediction and trend posts, so I’m jumping in. I particularly enjoy looking at my old  “predictions” and then look at what actually took place over subsequent years.

On that note, I thought I’d revisit my 2010 post for Web Worker Daily/GigaOm titled 8 Significant Developments in Social Media You Should Watch listing my 2011 predictions and add my thoughts on those marketing trends for 2015.

Here are excerpts from some of my 2011 predictions with today’s perspectives:

2011: Myspace will die.

Like a bad rash, MySpace is hard to eliminate. I wouldn’t be surprised if Myspace limped quietly through 2011 and finally expired. Facebook has taken over the space like the 800-pound gorilla it is.

TODAY:

As of 2014, Myspace has dropped to about 1 million users, ranked 392 in the U.S. in terms of site traffic, and as we all know (and often to our dismay), Facebook still dominates. (Wikipedia)

2011: Virtual goods: insanely popular.

You’re making a mistake if you think virtual goods are nothing more than “playing games.” Inside Network predicted that the U.S. virtual goods market will reach $2.1 billion in 2011.

TODAY:

It’s hard to tease out “virtual goods” from “in-game” or “in-app” purchases these days but digital goods are insanely lucrative. Consider the fact that the iTunes Store that sells digital music, movies, and apps generated more than $18 billion in total revenue in 2014 (Apple/Tech Republic). This number doesn’t even include the in-app revenues generated by mobile app and gaming companies. For perspective on that marketing, Clash of Clans has estimated daily revenues of $1,118,457, and Candy Crush is making $884,676 a day (App Annie/Business Insider).

2011: Gaming: Not just for kids.

You’re missing the boat if you think casual and social game-playing is a passing fad. In their report “The Future of Social Gaming 2011,” Inside Network predicts the social gaming market will reach $1.25 billion.

TODAY:

By the end of 2014, SuperData Research predicted mobile gaming alone would reach $21.1 billion in revenues up from $17.7 billion in 2013. Those numbers don’t include any other gaming format such as video console gaming. Huge.

2011: Twitter: Transforming communications.

Yes, still doing it. At the same time, Facebook is transforming the way we view privacy, and what, how, and how much personal information we share.

TODAY:

You can’t point to any major communications venue or format without noticing Twitter’s impact. From social interactions to news gathering and dissemination to advertising and entertainment to cultural references, Twitter has done more with 140-character messaging than anyone could have ever predicted.

2011: Niche networks: Good for marketing.

I’m still convinced that niche networks are valuable for smaller, more concentrated and highly targeted numbers. Get beyond the giddiness of having hundreds or thousands of “likers” on your Facebook Page, and you can create real value for your company, customers, vendors or targeted consumers by using niche networks.

TODAY:

One of my predictions for 2015 is that micro-communities are going to prove more valuable for most companies than their presences on bigger social networks. Building and engaging within smaller “Super Fan” forums will provide far more direct and tangible benefits to a business than from contributing to the noise and content glut on Facebook, Twitter, etc.

2011: Augmented reality: Really here.

I think 2011 will see mobile devices more capable of supporting AR, programmers developing useful AR applications, and marketers testing the space. AR will become more widespread, and really great and useful applications will proliferate. The next step will be to get consumers on board.

TODAY:

Okay, so maybe my bullish predictions on AR are always colored by my absolute love of science fiction. AR isn’t playing out the way we predicted but mostly because there is still a consumer learning curve and an app-dependent experience that slows adoption. Even if data, image and video overlay on space and objects doesn’t take hold (yet), I see promise with cross-platform user experiences in location marketing and wearable tech. Stay tuned for my thoughts on those trends in Part 2 of this post later this week.

2011: Google Buzz: Hmmm.

I thought Google Buzz would be big and important because Google is big. Google Buzz is still out there, but I don’t see much buzz about it, and I barely use or notice it myself.

TODAY:

Gone.

2011: Mobile. Be there.

That’s what I’m still saying. I’ve outlined a few things to consider about mobile in a recent post (from 2011). And don’t just think about devices, apps, and networks, but also communications and commerce.

TODAY:

Mobile? Inevitable. Just use it well.

Tune in later this week for more of my 2011 predictions revisited.

What are your predictions?

Related:

4 Tech Trends for 2014 (my predictions for 2014)

Back to the Future: Reviewing Social Media Trends (my predictions for 2012)

8 Significant Developments in Social Media You Should Watch (my predictions for 2011)

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